From Philip Reynolds, ACD, Copy, Palio

The Mayans foretold it. Doomsday: December 21, 2012, the date Lipitor comes off patent.

Actually, the Lipitor patent is due to expire earlier than that, on November 30, 2011. But I figure some smart guys at Pfizer will find a way to keep the money coming in for 13 months beyond that. Regardless, by the time the Mayan calendar runs out and the world ends, Lipitor, Plavix, Seroquel, Singulair, Actos, Lexapro, and Zyprexa will all have gone generic, along with over $20 billion in sales.

Soon after the world ends, Nexium will go generic too, so any surviving cockroaches will have an affordable option for managing acid reflux.

The world may not be coming to an end, but it is definitely losing a bunch of big drugs over the next few years, and no one knows what will take their place.

At Merck they’re developing a weight-loss pill that targets cannabis receptors in the brain. Basically, it gives you anti-munchies. This could be big, and, as a creative, I like it because it seems like it could set up some pretty original concepting.

It’s challenging to do differentiating creative for a me-too drug, and I worry we’re going to be getting a lot of me-too drugs over the next few years.

Assuming that… you know… we’re still around.